Can Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) Grow Their -0.001582 Earnings? Quant Signal Update

Earnings Yield is calculated by taking the operating income or earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and dividing it by the Enterprise Value of the company.  The Earnings Yield for Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) stands at -0.001582.  Earnings Yield helps investors measure the return on investment for a given company.  Similarly, the Earnings Yield Five Year Average is the five year average operating income or EBIT divided by the current enterprise value.  The Earnings Yield Five Year average for Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) is -0.004631.  Further, the Earnings to Price yield of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. NYSE:PANW is -0.004284.  This is calculated by taking the earnings per share and dividing it by the last closing share price.  This is one of the most popular methods investors use to evaluate a company’s financial performance.

When trading the stock market, investors constantly have to deal with volatility. There are many different reasons why markets may see increased volatility. Whether it is political change, economic events, or even natural disasters, there is always something brewing that has the ability to disrupt the market. When a big event happens, investors might be faced with challenges and be forced to react. Overreacting to market downturns may be common, but it may also hurt the health of the stock portfolio. When the stock market gets choppy and slides, investors may be tempted to quickly pull money out. Pulling out of positions based on specific events may be the right move sometimes, but investors may find that they missed out on gains that followed after a rebound. Staying disciplined and being prepared can help the investor ride out temporary market turbulence.

Quant Signals – Value Composite, C- Score, MF Rank, M-Score, ERP5

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) is 80.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) is 81.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) currently has a Montier C-score of -1.00000. This indicator was developed by James Montier in an attempt to identify firms that were altering financial numbers in order to appear better on paper. The score ranges from zero to six where a 0 would indicate no evidence of book cooking, and a 6 would indicate a high likelihood of something amiss. A C-score of -1 would indicate that there is not enough information available to calculate the score. Montier used six inputs in the calculation. These inputs included a growing difference between net income and cash flow from operations, increasing receivable days, growing day’s sales of inventory, increasing other current assets, decrease in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment, and high total asset growth.  

As any seasoned investor knows, markets can move up or down in the blink of an eye. Investors who attempt to beat the market without creating a plan may find themselves grasping at straws down the line. Building a plan that included the right level of risk may be different for every individual. Managing risk and staying on top of the stock portfolio can help investors ride out the storm when it eventually rolls in. Anybody who manages their own portfolio knows that it can be extremely challenging at times. Finding a consistent process that works when markets become volatile can be a big help to the investor. Controlling emotions and conducting the necessary research can help the investor make the difficult decisions when they crop up.

The MF Rank (aka the Magic Formula) is a formula that pinpoints a valuable company trading at a good price.  The formula is calculated by looking at companies that have a high earnings yield as well as a high return on invested capital.  The MF Rank of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) is 11800.  A company with a low rank is considered a good company to invest in.  The Magic Formula was introduced in a book written by Joel Greenblatt, entitled, “The Little Book that Beats the Market”.

Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) has an M-score Beneish of -999.000000. This M-score model was developed by Messod Beneish in order to detect manipulation of financial statements. The score uses a combination of eight different variables. The specifics of the variables and formula can be found in the Beneish paper “The Detection of Earnings Manipulation”.

The last signal we’ll look at is the ERP5 Rank.  The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies.  The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC.  The ERP5 of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) is 14613.  The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

Investors may be trying to gauge the current business cycle phase and how that could potentially impact the portfolio. Business cycles can be one way to analyze portfolio performance. Early on in the cycle, profits tend to grow rapidly, sales tend to improve, and activity rebounds. In the middle of a cycle, growth may be peaking, strong credit growth may still be seen, and policy may swing neutral. Toward the later stages, growth may be moderate, earnings may come under pressure, and credit may tighten. Heading into a period of recession, credit may completely dry up, profits may decline sharply, and there may be policy easing. Investors will often have to adjust portfolio holdings that reflect the current state of a business cycle.

Volatility/PI

Stock volatility is a percentage that indicates whether a stock is a desirable purchase.  Investors look at the Volatility 12m to determine if a company has a low volatility percentage or not over the course of a year.  The Volatility 12m of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) is 26.076800.  This is calculated by taking weekly log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over one year annualized.  The lower the number, a company is thought to have low volatility.  The Volatility 3m is a similar percentage determined by the daily log normal returns and standard deviation of the share price over 3 months.  The Volatility 3m of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) is 26.621600.  The Volatility 6m is the same, except measured over the course of six months.  The Volatility 6m is 34.076700.

We can now take a quick look at some historical stock price index data. Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) presently has a 10 month price index of 1.15408. The price index is calculated by dividing the current share price by the share price ten months ago. A ratio over one indicates an increase in share price over the period. A ratio lower than one shows that the price has decreased over that time period. Looking at some alternate time periods, the 12 month price index is 1.27400, the 24 month is 2.22518, and the 36 month is 1.72729. Narrowing in a bit closer, the 5 month price index is 1.49584, the 3 month is 1.20256, and the 1 month is currently 1.01440.

ROIC

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) is -0.012999.  The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not.  It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits.  The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital.  The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets.  Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years.  The ROIC Quality of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) is -0.079083.  This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets).  The ROIC 5 year average of Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NYSE:PANW) is -0.068540.

Stock market investing can indeed tug on an individual’s emotional strings. When the market becomes tumultuous, investors may be tempted to act impulsively, or they may freeze and not act at all. Being prepared for various scenarios may help the investor better deal with the market when the time comes. Staying disciplined with portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation may be a big help for the individual investor. Investors who constantly try to outguess the market and chase winners may eventually find themselves swimming upstream. Staying the course and keeping a logical perspective may assist the investor with making the tricky portfolio decisions when necessary.  

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